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Learn about Expected Goals

Expected Goals have been frequently used and debated within football analytics circles for the best part of a decade- According to the free soccer tips daily page!

However, with the metric increasingly being adopted by Opta, Match of the Day and other major football media, the casual reader now needs lớn make sense of the numbers.

For the football punter, whether you are a casual Saturday accumulator builder or have a more serious interest, they should become more important than any league table you ever digest.

What are Expected Goals, and why should we care?

Let’s start with what they are not. Expected Goals are not a prediction of how many goals we expect to see in a future match between two teams (despite what the name suggests), but they absolutely can be used as an important input into determining the answer to that particular puzzle. You can prefer the football predictions page!

So what are they then?

Have you ever attended a football match where one of the sides absolutely pummel the other for 90 minutes without respite, only lớn ultimately lose the match 1-0? Yes, thought as much!

We’ve all witnessed games like that and in a sport as low-scoring as football, shock results do occur. Very often that unexpected outcome is not because the underdog truly played well enough to win the match, but rather that lady luck simply didn’t show her face in equal measure to the two sides on the day. This is where Expected Goals come in – also known as xG.

Expected Goals is a numerical value assigned lớn every potential scoring opportunity throughout a football match, based on the likelihood that that chance produces a goal. Add up all of those expected goals, and you achieve an expected number of goals produced by each team in the match.

The Penalty Example

Take a penalty kick for example. We’ve been watching penalties for years. Thousands of them, and large samples have allowed us to predict pretty confidently how many of them produce a goal. In the long term, almost every team in top flight European football will convert around 78% of their spot kicks.

In other words, for every 100 penalties, there will be 78 scored as a direct result. Or put another way, for any given penalty, that team would be expected to score 0.78 goals.

Building up xG numbers

No two xG models are identical. They are produced using a variety of different metrics which are used to predict the number of goals a team might reasonably have expected lớn score in a match given the removal of luck one way or another. Sometimes they will score more than their chances deserved; sometimes fewer.

Let’s start with the simplest models, and work up towards the more complex.