James Cameron has a record of making expensive movies, setting the record of most expensive movie of all time with Terminator 2: Judgment Day in 1991, breaking that record with True Lies in 1994, which was the first movie to cost more than $100 million to make. Cameron turned around and broke that record again with his next movie, Titanic in 1998, which was the first movie to cost more than $200 million. It's not uncommon for Hollywood blockbusters to cost well north of $200 million these days, but Cameron is raising the bar again with Avatar: The Way of Water, which reportedly cost between 350 to $400 million to make.
Thanks to Avatar 2's huge price tag, after factoring in marketing, profit sharing with theaters, and other expenses, Avatar: The Way of Water needs an astronomical box office run in order to turn a profit, with Cameron himself calling it “the worst business case in movie history.” While it doesn't have to make quite as much as the first movie, Cameron says "You have to be the third or fourth highest-grossing film in history. That’s your threshold. That’s your break even."